To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Unlock with Patreon
Susie Holt may run again for this seat as her Facebook page still says “Suzie Holt 4 Groom” & is still active
@Caleb that doesn’t mean much.
It’s actually a worthwhile observation, thank you Caleb. Certainly more meaningful than much of the amateur psephology one may encounter.
Holt did extremely well in 2022, but I think if she were to run again she would find it much trickier as she’s not running against the LNP government per se. I think a lot of her vote was down to a protest from LNP voters who wanted to send a note of discontent against the sitting PM but did not want to vote Labor.
Given the government has changed, you would expect the anti-government vote will coalesce solidly behind the LNP with a smattering of One Nation on the side. The LNP will win 50%+ on primaries but not due to the talents of the sitting member, but a combination of rusted-on conservatism and a Labor government in Canberra.
Holt did extremely well in 2022
@NQ View
Susie Holt came fourth on the primary vote with 8.3%. And the Labor candidate beat Holt by over 10% on the primary vote. But preferences were able to weave her into the final two party preferred vote. I think it’s been exaggerated how well she did. I’m not sure if Groom is a prime target for the teals, unlike like a seat such as Bradfield.
If finishing in the final 2PP vote as an independent, and driving the LNP down to its lowest 2PP tally since the seat was established isn’t ‘doing extremely well’, then I’m not sure what else there is to say. There was zero expectation of Holt doing as well as she did.
Suzie Holt just released a Campaign video a couple of days ago
@Caleb – she’s confirmed she is running again.
@ Nether Portal
Groom contains
1. 100% of Toowoomba North
2. 100% of Toowomba South
3. 87% of Condamine
Booths will be posted sometime today i actually think there will be little difference as there is no overlapping Labor held seat
@Nimalan I agree, same as Maranoa.
booths/suburbs
1. Biddeston
2. Bowenville
3. Cambooya
4. Centenary Heights
5. Darling Heights
6. Drayton
7. Fairview Heights (Wilsonton)
8. Gebbinbar
9. Geham
10. Glenvale
11. Gooombugee
12. Harlaxton
13. Harristown
14. Highfields
15. Jondaryan
16. Kingsthorpe
17. Kulpi
18. Meringandan
19.Middle Ridge
20. Mount Lofty
21. Mount Tyson
22. Newtown
23. Oakley
24. Pittsworth
25. Quinalow
26. Rangeville
27. Rockville
28. Southbrook
29. The Range
30. Toowoomba booths
31. Tor Street North
32. Wellcamp
33. Wilsonton
24. Wilstonton Heights
25. Wyreema
@Nimalan thanks, will calculate soon.
State level TPP here (2024):
* LNP: 67.7%
* Labor: 32.3%
Labor actually did 3.5% worse on the state level in 2024 than on the federal level in 2022, which is a surprise but also not a surprise.
In 2022 there were lots of people who voted independent and may have just followed the HTV card and accidentally preferenced Labor.
Plus, it appears that Trevor Watts is more popular than David Janetski despite Janetski being higher up in Cabinet, since Watts’ seat of Toowoomba North (which was once a Labor seat) is now safer than the traditionally more conservative seat of Toowoomba South (Janetski’s seat), which hasn’t been held by Labor since its first member Peter Wood who held it from 1972 until 1974. Toowoomba North is the seat with most of the CBD too hence it’s traditionally less conservative.
To break it down, in the urban parts of Groom (Toowoomba) the LNP got 64.8% of the TPP vote in 2024, while in the rural parts they got 73.7%.
Np: I noticed that too
Now to shift Highlands out of Toowoomba Nth
Prior to the dlp split Labor held both Towoomba seats . . 1957 Duggan lost his Toowoomba seat whilst the other was held by les Wood unfortunately he died.
Duggan won the by-election and held the seat till he retired in 1969.
Labor held both Toowoomba seats till the disaster of 1974. Then the pattern of Toowoomba nth being the seat Labor won on occasions was set in.place. peter wood was les Woods son
@Mick Quinlivan I feel like Labor under Peter Beattie and Anna Bligh were competitive in parts of the Gold Coast and in Toowoomba but not so much on the Sunshine Coast. When Campbell Newman’s LNP won in 2012 in a massive landslide Labor lost all of those seats. However, under Annastacia Palaszczuk, Labor were competitive on the Sunshine Coast (having won two seats there in 2020) and less so on the Gold Coast (where Labor only has one seat, Gaven, which has been a Labor seat since 2017). Note that the Gold Coast has more seats than the Sunshine Coast because it’s more populated (there are 11 seats on the Gold Coast and seven seats on the Sunshine Coast, so 2/7 is much more than 1/11).
In the recent Queensland election, the Labor candidate for Toowoomba South campaigned for around 4 months leading up to the election. In Toowoomba North, the candidate was only announced just before close of nominations and there was no visible campaign.
Peter Wood had an identical twin brother, Bill, who was an MP in North Queensland from 1969 to 1974 and then spent 15 years as an MP in the ACT Legislative Assembly.
@Watson Watch neither seats were in play though, Queensland Labor’s basically given up on Toowoomba because they have so much ground in Brisbane.
Nether Portal,
I never made any comments about who or what was in or out of play.
My comment was simply an explanation for the difference in the voting pattern in the two seats at the most recent election.
Kerry Shine missed out on winning Towoomba nth narrowly in 2015.
There Was then a redistribution which proposed to Remove Highlands from the seat to Condamine I think.. there were many submissions encouraged by lnp to reverse this and it was
There would be a very interesting history of the politics of Towoomba which could be written.
Gordon chalk was a friend of Jack Duggan despite their political differences.
I would not write off the chances of an alp win in Towoomba…. but at best it would be 2 elections away
The distance from Towoomba to Brisbane is approx 120 km… so this may encourage growth.
And change the nature of the City.
@Watson Watch I know but it definitely adds something. Whitsunday had a massive swing because Labor fielded a candidate so late and she campaigned so badly.
Nether Portal,
Which year?
Labor fielded female candidates in Whitsunday at every election from 1989 to 2020 inclusive. 2024 was their first male candidate in Whitsunday since 1986.
@Watson Watch *he campaigned late and poorly
Please provide details of what you mean by ‘late and poorly’.
@Watson Watch have a look at the Whitsunday thread, that has some details.